Monday, October 11, 2010

Today, I’d like to depart a little from the usual subject matter of my blog to share some exciting news from one of Keithley’s senior market development managers, Bob Green. On a customer visit to Manchester University, he and two colleagues were lucky enough to witness a rare moment of Nobel prize-winning achievement. I wanted to share Bob’s obvious excitement with those of you who read my blog, captured in his email:

AMAZING


One of the most thrilling days of my working career. I was extremely proud to be a representative of Keithley Instruments. Mary Anne Tupta and Jeremy Gilbert enjoyed the day as much as I did.

There we were, in the Condensed Matter Physics Lab at the University of Manchester in Manchester, England, working with Dr. Novoselov on one of his graphene test systems, which have two 2400s and a 2182A in each test system, and he excuses himself to take a call. In the meantime, his post doctoral fellows, many who had conducted graphene research with him, and worked in a large office adjacent to the lab, had seen the information on the Internet. They were absolutely ecstatic. Then Dr. Novoselov comes back into the lab, and everyone cheered him. People were taking pictures. The group had a small celebration. Phones were ringing like crazy. The BBC came to interview him and his collaborator, Dr. Geim. Dr. Novoselov actually apologized to us for the interruptions. More people came from other media groups to interview the two men.

I had planned to get a picture of myself with Dr. Novoselov just in case he ever did win a prize. Fortunately I was ready. Attached are the pictures of us with one of the 2010 Nobel Laureates in Physics and a closeup of the test system.

It felt great to know that our products helped Dr Novoselov conduct the advanced research resulting in a discovery that will lead to significant innovations in new products and technologies. This is one more example of how our products and our technical expertise help researchers make breakthroughs so significant that they achieve the most prestigious prize in physics and the sciences, the Nobel Prize.

I felt part of science history today. Later in the day, Dr. Novoselov sat down with us to hear our advice on improving his system and his measurements. A Nobel Laureate listening to advice from Mary Anne, Jeremy, and me. As a member of Keithley Instruments, it just does not get any better than that.

It is after midnight, and I am still on a high. I cannot get over my good fortune to have experienced this event. I am so thankful that I work for Keithley. It just feels great.

AMAZING

Monday, August 2, 2010

Tier 1 Fabs are Consolidating. How Does that Affect Test?

The industry’s consolidation of Tier 1 semiconductor fabs has been well documented. Given the tremendous sums of capital required to build and operate a fab, that concentration is hardly surprising.

Gartner Group, for instance, has predicted that by 2014 there will be just 10 leading edge fabs in the world.  In fact, Gartner says, this concentration of capital isn’t anything recent or driven by last year’s downturn;  there’s been a long-term trend toward concentrated capital dating back to 1995, independent of any economic cycle.

What does this mean for test?  Will it change the way test engineers design their systems, or the types of systems test companies such as Keithley Instruments will bring to market?  I believe so, and here’s how:

The predicted consolidation of Tier 1 semiconductor manufacturers will likely affect demand for “big iron” test equipment.  There will be fewer buyers of these systems -- not necessarily fewer deployments, as wafer demand isn’t expected to drop as a result of Tier 1 consolidation.  These big iron systems will just be re-deployed within the industry to fewer buyers.  As a result, the stakes for winning or losing these orders will be ratcheted higher, as a single win or loss will have a larger impact than today on a test company’s market share.  Only the largest test companies will have the capital to withstand the rigors of the Tier 1 sector of the market, so there will be fewer choices available to the test manager at Tier 1s.

The Tier 2 fabs will migrate to more flexible test equipment solutions rather than the single-purpose “big iron” system.  Their business model isn’t based on pushing the edge of Moore’s Law to the very latest node.  They’re doing more niche products, more analog and discrete products.  It’s a totally different approach.

What does this mean for test?  If you’re a test manager in a Tier 1, you’re likely looking at bleeding edge solutions on process nodes and scribe widths.  You’ll have a tremendous amount of buying power, but you’ll have fewer companies able to provide that leading edge measurement capability.

The Tier 2 test manager will be coordinating more applications, more solutions, and require more flexibility from his/her test hardware choices.  A test system built for one part of the fab must be built in a way that can support a different portion of the fab tomorrow.  The big iron system isn’t envisioned for this sector of the market, so you’ll find more instrument-based systems inside the Tier 2s to align with their business model.

End of the day:  the test manager at a Tier 1 has bigger budgets and fewer choices;  the test manager at the Tier 2 has more choices, more flexibility, but not as big a checkbook as his Tier 1 counterpart.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Did the Recession Affect The Pace of Innovation?

When profits are squeezed or become non-existent, that typically eliminates any company’s ability to fund its future, to invest in new product development initiatives or longer-term research projects.  In the semiconductor industry, with its insatiable demands for engineering development resources, any interruption in that flow of innovation funding can have long-term effects.

From our vantage point as a test company, though, we didn’t see long-term semiconductor innovation take a big hit.  In fact, based on what we see, the pace of innovation has been rather aggressive in the past year.

The beauty of our industry, the electronics industry, is that it’s fueled by consumers’ never-ending desire for devices that perform better and cost less.  The only way to satisfy that demand is innovation – new devices, new displays, new power technologies, new processes, and so on.

At Keithley, we have a front row seat for many of these new technologies.  The never-ending churn innovation creates requires a similar call for new measurement technology to verify the latest design of whatever your engineer just imagined on his benchtop.  There’s a perpetual need for test in the consumer electronics portion of the industry, because the pace of innovation is so rapid.

So we don’t see innovation being restricted by the downturn.  In fact, our customers are still pushing us for new products and new capabilities, in some cases even more so than during a strong economy because they realize innovation in their own labs is the only way they’ll lift themselves out of any slump.  And the green innovation drive has accelerated this past year, creating its own momentum for design innovation and therefore test.

The semiconductor industry, from a profit and sales perspective, has rebounded to 2008 levels.  So while the pace of innovation hasn’t slowed, it has changed.  There are fewer companies today than in ’08, but chip demand remained relatively constant and has been re-allocated to the survivors.  In addition, we see more innovation coming from our customers in China today than perhaps five years ago.  That’s a newer source of innovation that will only continue to grow, complementing what we see from North America, Europe, Korea and Japan, not replacing it.